Global Trend 2020
Source: www.cia.gov | ||||
| Relative Certainties | Key Uncertainties | |||
| Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized. | Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new rules of the game. | |||
| World economy substantially larger. | Extent of gaps between haves and have-nots; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises. | |||
| Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. | Extent to which connectivity challenges governments. | |||
| Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights. | Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly. | |||
| Aging populations in established powers. | Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower. | |||
| Energy supplies in the ground sufficient to meet global demand. | Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions. | |||
| Growing power of nonstate actors. | Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors. | |||
| Political Islam remains a potent force. | Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology. | |||
| Improved WMD capabilities of some states. | More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons. | |||
| Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa. | Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes. | |||
| Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely. | Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources. | |||
| Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore. | Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas. | |||
| US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily. | Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge. | |||
posted by Mark Smalley @ 12:09 PM
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